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Why is visual learning effective?

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Psychology

Thinking in Bets

by Annie Duke (2018)

Thinking in Bets shows how to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion, reveals how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make more accurate assessments.

Key Ideas from Thinking in Bets

Resulting

Judging decisions by outcomes rather than process. A good decision can have a bad outcome; a bad decision can have a good outcome. Separate the two.

Thinking in Bets

Express beliefs as probabilities, not certainties. 'I'm 70% confident' is more useful and honest than 'I'm sure.'

The Two-Way Street

Credit and blame flow in both directions between decisions and outcomes. Luck affects outcomes; decisions affect odds.

Truthseeking Groups

Surround yourself with people who help you think better. The best groups have diversity, dissent, and a commitment to accuracy over comfort.

Mental Time Travel

Imagine your future self looking back at this decision. What information would you want? Use 10-10-10: How will you feel in 10 minutes, 10 months, 10 years?

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